财新传媒
位置:博客 > 杨再平 > 在“亚洲合作对话(ACD)”演讲提“让亚洲成为平衡世界经济的重要一极”

在“亚洲合作对话(ACD)”演讲提“让亚洲成为平衡世界经济的重要一极”

 杨再平:让亚洲成为平衡世界经济的重要一极

来源:中国经济网|2015051816:16

 

 
                              中国银行业协会杨再平专职副会长发表主旨演讲
 

 中国经济网北京518日讯今日,由外交部、福建省人民政府、全国工商联、中国中小企业国际合作协会共同主办的“亚洲合作对话(ACD)共建'一带一路'合作论坛暨亚洲工商大会”在福建省福州市举行。来自33ACD成员国外交部或相关部门副部级或司局级官员、成员国驻华大使或代表、相关领域专家学者及工商界代表200余人参加了会议。中国银行业协会杨再平专职副会长应邀出席了会议,并在会议"分论坛二:发挥好本地区多边金融机构优势,推进'一带一路'金融合作"中发表了题为"让亚洲成为平衡世界经济的重要一极"的主旨演讲。

 

 在演讲中,杨会长指出,早在上世纪末,一些国际观察家纷纷预言,世界经济重心将向亚洲转移。近20年来,随着亚洲的崛起及金融危机影响下各经济体自身实力的此消彼长,世界对亚洲这个发展中大陆的倚重确实在不断增强。但亚洲经济加速增长崛起,并不意味着其将取代欧美成为世界新的唯一经济重心,而只是让世界多了一个经济重心,让世界经济多了一极。这种多重心或多极化平衡的客观要求,与世界经济全球化的发展是成正比的。正如美国知名新闻工作者托马斯·弗里德曼在其畅销书《世界是平的》中提出的"世界正被抹平""世界是平的",但世界经济却长期"不平衡",这种不平衡表现在国际贸易、金融、规则制定及全球治理等多个方面。而有益于世界经济金融平衡的全球治理,不能没有"亚洲话语权""亚洲席位"。我们注意到,与其60%的世界人口占比以及经济成长性及重要性相比,亚洲在全球治理中的"话语权""席位"是不对称的。造成这种不对称的原因很复杂,但亚洲各国各经济体之间缺少联合行动与机制是重要原因。在这方面,亚洲应充分借鉴欧洲一体化的丰富经验,进一步加强经济金融联合,让亚洲成为平衡世界经济金融的重要一极。

 

  亚洲合作对话(ACD)是面向全亚洲的政府间对话合作机制和推进"一带一路"建设的重要多边合作机制。本次对话以推进"一带一路"建设,提升亚洲务实合作水平为主题,对ACD"一带一路"建设共同发展、相互促进、互利共赢;发挥好本地区多边金融机构优势,推进"一带一路"金融合作;和合共生推进亚洲工商界合作;发挥会展优势推进亚洲经贸合作等议题进行了探讨。大会期间,主办方还邀请成员国商会和企业参加了产品展览会。

 

       附上演讲全文(中英文),供专业兴趣同仁参阅并批评指正。

 

 

         让亚洲成为平衡世界经济的重要一极

                  ——在亚洲合作对话共建“一带一路”合作论坛暨亚洲工商大会上的演讲

 

 

 中国银行业协会专职副会长杨再平

 2015518日上午福州

各位ACD成员国代表,各位专家学者、工商界同仁及新闻媒体的朋友们:

 

非常高兴能有此机会和来自ACD成员国的政府官员、专家学者及工商界代表共同出席“亚洲合作对话——共建‘一带一路’合作论坛暨亚洲工商大会”,并也应邀在此分论坛上发言。在此,我谨代表中国银行业协会对大会的召开表示祝贺,向各位来宾致以诚挚的问候和热烈的欢迎!

 

早在上世纪末,一些国际观察家纷纷预言,世界经济重心将向亚洲转移。近20年来,随着亚洲的崛起及金融危机影响下各经济体自身实力的此消彼长,世界对亚洲这个发展中大陆的倚重确实在不断增强。几个持续高速增长经济体都在亚洲。即使大幅减速后,2014年,中国和印度的经济增速都达到7.4%,除日本小幅上涨0.2%外,像韩国(3.2%)、印度尼西亚(4.8%)、马来西亚(5.2%)等国都有不错的增长,共同抬高亚洲经济的平均增速达5.5%,远远超过世界2.6%的增长速度。目前,亚洲经济体占全球产出的比例已近40%,对全球经济成长的贡献已近2/3。亚洲各主要经济体对区域内市场的贸易依存度整体达到53.01%,也就是说有超过一半的贸易都直接来自亚洲近邻。

 

不过在我看来,亚洲经济加速增长崛起,并不意味着其将取代欧美成为世界新的唯一经济重心,并不意味着原有的欧美经济重心会“没落”,而只是让世界多了一个经济重心,让世界经济多了一极。

 

正如国际有识之士所指出的,亚洲新兴市场的崛起,反过来可为欧美发达国家提供新的增长空间与动力,从而促使欧美发达国家进行必要的体制改革与结构调整,汲取新兴国家的新鲜经验,从而在新的条件下实现新的增长。

 

世界经济多了一个亚洲重心,不仅有益于世界经济增长,更有益于世界经济平衡。所谓“独木难支”,“三点确定一平面”、“三根棍子才能撑托一个平面”,这一浅显道理当然也适合近200个经济体70多亿人生活其中的世界经济。世界经济的宏伟大厦岂可独木支撑?

 

这种多重心或多极化平衡的客观要求,与世界经济全球化的发展是成正比的。换言之,世界经济全球化越普遍而强,多重心或多极化平衡的客观要求越强。

 

 说到全球化,美国知名新闻工作者托马斯·弗里德曼所撰写的畅销书《世界是平的》引起了世人的高度关注。该书分析了21世纪初期全球化的过程,其主要结论就是“世界正被抹平”,或日益全球化,故其书名为“世界是平的”。

 

 我们确信世界越来越平,却又长时期被世界经济的“不平衡”所困扰。“世界是平的”,世界经济却长期“不平衡”,这是很矛盾的世界现象。

 

 首先是国际贸易不平衡。总体特征表现为以我国为代表的一些新兴国家出口大于进口,存在巨额外汇顺差;而以美国为代表的一些发达国家则贸易逆差长期存在。除此之外,国家之间贸易失衡还表现在发展水平与商品结构差异大,发达国家与发展中国家存在不等价交换,发达国家利用关税壁垒、技术壁垒等抑制发展中国家的商品出口等。当然,贸易顺差并不代表就占了便宜,得到了好处,也许它的危害更大一些;而逆差也与吃亏无关,反而可能是获得了巨大的经济利益。但不管对经济个体的影响如何,长期的贸易失衡已经成为国际贸易摩擦不断深化升级的导火索,它影响着世界经济的稳定性,加剧了世界经济的不平衡格局。

 

贸易不平衡背后的原因其实很大程度是国际金融不平衡。这集中体现于现存的国际货币金融体系。正如诺贝尔经济学奖获得者、美国经济学家斯蒂格利茨所言,这种制度安排的最大特点是:“一个国家可以把整个全球经济体系扣做人质”。拿这次国际金融危机来说,不少分析家认为,危机是过度创新和美国过度消费造成的,而实际上美国之所以过度消费,背靠的正是国际货币体系这棵大树。美元一直在充当世界货币,而作为世界货币就一定要保证美元在“体外”流通,因此一定要有贸易赤字;而作为世界货币,其币值要相对稳定,又不能持续保持贸易赤字。正是这一“特里芬悖论”,让美国人能够甚至必须消费世界,能够甚至必须寅吃卯粮。金融危机的共性关键词是“泡沫”,而这次美国次贷危机引发的国际金融危机的个性关键词则是“全球性”,是全球资源吹大了美国资产泡沫,其破裂造成的影响当然也是全球性的,因此我们迎来的是全球性的海啸,是全球经济损失的扩大与世界经济失衡的加剧。

 

进而是国际规则不平衡。从上述金融的不平衡,可以进一步引申到国际规则的制定方面。国际规则是世界各国政治、经济、外交综合能力博弈的结果。现行国际规则主要是第二次世界大战之后发达国家操纵制定的产物,多为单边规则,体现的是大国或大国集团的意志和利益,带有明显的歧视性、不公正性和不合理性,广大发展中国家没有平等的参与权和发言权。今年1月,美国总统奥巴马在国会发表任内第六份国情咨文,明确提出美国应该主导制定国际贸易规则,为自己的公司创造条件。他同时旁敲侧击:“中国想制定规则,以发展这个世界上经济增长最快的地区,这将会使美国的商业和工人的地位落后。这是美国不能允许的。”其实,中国无意也无可能主导制定世界经济金融规则,但我们坚信,一日个别发达国家单边主导世界经济金融规则,一日世界经济金融就不可能平衡。因此,我们要和世界各国一道共同参与世界经济金融规则的制定。“计利当计天下利”!我们不想主导规则,但我们要参与规则,世界的规则应由世界各国共同参与制定,这才叫全球民主。

 

再进而是全球治理不平衡。个别大国一直自诩为“全球治理”的鼻祖和领袖,而现行的全球治理体系已暴露出种种弊端,极易导致全球治理的失衡,从而加剧世界经济金融的失衡。爱因斯坦曾经说过:“你不能用导致了问题的旧有思维方式来解决问题。” 以某个超级大国的霸权为“中心论”的全球治理,就是导致了并正在导致严重问题的全球治理模式,从而也是世界经济金融失衡的渊薮。

 

而有益于世界经济金融平衡的全球治理,不能没有“亚洲话语权”或“亚洲席位”。我们注意到,与其60%的世界人口占比以及经济成长性及重要性相比,亚洲在全球治理中的“话语权”或“席位”是不对称的。造成这种不对称的原因很复杂,但亚洲各国各经济体之间缺少联合行动与机制是重要原因。在这方面,欧洲一体化的丰富经验值得我们借鉴。正是一个紧密联合的欧洲,才在全球治理中发挥着日益重要的作用,从而对世界经济金融的平衡发挥了一定作用。

 

有益于世界经济金融平衡的全球治理亦需要一个联合的亚洲。可以说,世界经济金融平衡需要亚洲经济金融联合,亚洲经济金融进一步发展也需要联合。这也就是为什么我国“一带一路”及亚投行战略构想如此得到积极响应的客观原因。

 

从价值层面看,“一带一路”顺应了亚洲广大发展中国家改革全球治理体制的诉求;从规则层面看,“一带一路”是对现有全球治理规则的补充与完善;从主体层面看,“一带一路”是合作发展的理念和倡议,必将为深化亚洲区域合作注入强劲动力;从效果层面看,“一带一路”鼓励向西开放,带动西部内陆国家开发,向国际社会传导了全球化的包容性发展理念。因此,“一带一路”可以说是中国携手亚洲参与全球治理,推动全球治理体系变革的重大举措。

 

 贸易是最强劲的引擎,无疑也是“一带一路”战略的重点,在此过程中,金融的助推作用至关重要。作为现代经济的血液供给系统,经济运行的每一个环节都离不开其跨时空的资源汲取与资金交易。正如英格兰的经济学家大卫·休谟所言,“货币……是一种润滑油,它使(贸易的)齿轮转动得更加平滑自如。”因此,在“一带一路”战略提出后,我国又先后成立了亚洲基础设施投资银行和丝路基金,为亚洲沿线国家基础设施建设、资源开发、产业合作等有关项目提供金融支持,亚洲金融合作也获得了更为广阔的空间。

 

早在上世纪90年代初,亚洲金融合作就已在官方层面探索开展。1991年,亚洲地区性国际金融组织——东亚及太平洋地区中央银行行长会议组织(EMEAP)成立,旨在促进本地区各成员货币当局之间的交流与合作,加强本地区中央银行之间的信息沟通,协调各成员的金融政策。此外,1997年,时任马来西亚总理马哈蒂尔还在东盟国家首脑会议上,最早提出了“亚元区”的设想,虽然从目前看,“亚元”梦还较为遥远,但是亚洲金融合作的强烈需求已经既成事实。为更好地满足这一需求,亚洲各国不仅要有政府层面的实践,更要有策应有力的NGO组织配合。上世纪80年代,亚洲地区相继出现了区域性经济合作组织以及各类型金融业协会或联盟。但整体而言,这些非政府民间组织大都规模较小、活跃度较低、影响能力有限。

 

328日,习近平主席在博鳌亚洲论坛2015年年会开幕式上发表主旨演讲,提出要积极推动构建地区金融合作体系,探讨搭建亚洲金融机构交流合作平台。借此隆重场合,我也郑重告知各位:中国银行业协会正致力于落实习主席这一重要倡议,作为初始牵头发起机构发起筹建“亚洲金融合作协会”。作为亚洲金融NGO组织,该协会志在推动亚洲金融互联互通合作常态化,以此促进亚洲金融更安全稳健发展,更好服务亚洲经济发展,同时增强亚洲金融在国际金融体系的话语权和影响力,为国际金融治理,为使亚洲成为平衡世界经济金融的重要一极,为全球经济金融平衡做出应有的贡献。我们真诚欢迎亚洲各经济体金融类行业协会商会、金融类机构及高端金融专业人士积极参与,同时也欢迎其他地区金融机构以适当方式参加,以做成最大限度开放包容并活跃有效的亚洲金融NGO组织。

 

如果各位也有此共识,那就让我们共同行动,为让亚洲成为平衡世界经济金融的重要一极而共同努力吧!

 

谢谢大家

 

 

Let Asia Become an Important Polar of Balancing World Economy

---Speech at “Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD)-Jointly Build “One Belt One Road” Cooperation Forum and Asia Business Conference”

By Yang Zaiping, Executive Vice President of CBA

 

 

Fuzhou, May 18th, 2015

Dear all ACD members, scholars, experts, Business colleagues, as well as friends from News and Media sectors,

I’m very happy to have this opportunity to attend“Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD)-Jointly Build “One Belt One Road” Cooperation Forum and Asia Business Conference” together with government officials of ACD members, scholars, experts, Business colleagues, and be invited to deliver a speech at this session. On behalf of China Banking Association (CBA), I’d like to convey sincere congratulations on the conference as well as warm welcome and greetings to all of you!

As early as the end of last century, some international observers have predicted that the economic barycenter of the world will move to Asia. Over the past 20 years, with the rise of Asia and financial crisis’ impact on the strength of economies, the Worlds dependence on Asia is rising indeed. Several economies with continuous and rapid growth are in Asia. Even after a sharp slowdown, in 2014, China's and India's economic growth rate have reached 7.4%, and other countries like South Korea (3.2%), Indonesia (4.8%), Malaysia (5.2%) have realized a good growth, which jointly raised the average growth rate of Asia economy at 5.5%, far higher than the world’s economy growth rate of 2.6%. At present, Asian economies have accounted for nearly 40% of the global output with an almost 2/3 contribution to the global economic growth. Overall, the trade dependence degree of major Asian economies on the intra-regional market has reached 53.01%, which means more than a half of trade businesses are directly from Asian neighbors.

However, in my opinion, the accelerated rise and growth of Asia economy doesn't mean that Asia will replace Europe and US and become the only economic barycenter, or the original Europe and US economic barycenter will “decline”. Instead, this just will add one economic barycenter and one polar for the world economy.

As some far-sighted international scholars pointed out, the rising of Asian emerging markets could in turn provide new space and momentum for developed countries in Europe and US, thus prompt these countries to make necessary system reforms and structure adjustments, draw fresh experience from emerging countries and then realize new growth under new situation.

Having one more economic barycenter in Asia will not only be favorable for world economic growth, but also favorable for world economy balance. Just as “One log cannot prop up a tottering building”,“Three points determine a plane” and “Three sticks to hold a plane”, these simple principles are of course suitable for the world economy with nearly 200 economies and 7 billion people. So, how could the magnificent mansion of world economy be supported by only one polar?

The objective requirements for multiple economic barycenters and polars are proportional to the development of economic globalization. In other words, the objective requirements for multiple economic barycenters and polars will increase with the globalization of world economy.

Speaking of globalization, The World is Flat, one best seller written by a famous American journalist Thomas Friedman, attracted great attentions of the world. The book analyzes the process of globalization in the early of 21st century, comes to the main conclusion that “the world is being flattened” or “the globalization degree is increasing”, and therefore titled as The World is Flat.

We are convinced that the world is more and more flat, but have been puzzled by the “imbalance” of world economy for a long period. The world is flat, but the world economy is “unbalanced” for a long time, which is a very contradictory phenomenon in the world.

Firstly, it’s international trade imbalance. The overall characteristics are the export of some emerging countries represented by China exceeds import, resulting in huge foreign exchange surpluses; while some developed countries represented by US suffer long-standing trade deficit. Besides, trade imbalances between countries also reflect in terms of the big difference between the level of development and the commodity structure, the nonequivalent exchange between developed countries and developing countries, use of tariff barriers, technical barriers by developed countries to restrain exports of developing countries, etc. Of course, trade surplus doesn’t mean taking advantage and getting benefits, perhaps it will bring more harm than benefits; on the other hand, deficits doesn’t mean suffer losses, and perhaps get huge economic benefits. No matter how it impacts individual economy, long-term trade imbalance has become a fuse of the deepening and upgrade of international trade friction, which affects the stability of the world economy, and aggravates the unbalanced pattern of the world economy.

The reason behind the trade imbalance is largely international finance imbalance, which focuses on the existing international monetary and financial system. As the Nobel Prize winner, American economist Joseph Stieglitz said, the biggest characteristic of this system arrangement is: "a country could hold the whole global economic system as hostages ". Taking this international financial crisis for example, quite a few analysts believe that the crisis is caused by excessive innovation and US’ excessive consumption, while the reason for the excessive consumption in US is it’s backed by international monetary system. US dollar has been acting as the world currency, while acting as a world currency must ensure US dollars’ circulation internationally, which means there must be trade deficits; however, as a world currency, the value must be relatively stable, which means trade deficits couldn’t be continuously maintained. It’s just “The Triffin dilemma” that allows Americans be able to or even have to consume the world and deficit spending. The common keyword of financial crisis is "bubble", but the individual keyword of this international financial crisis caused by American sub-prime mortgage crisis is “global”. It is global resources which inflate US’ assets bubbles, so the impacts of bubble burst are certainly global. Therefore, we are facing a global tsunami, as well as the aggravation of global economic losses and world economic imbalances.

Then, it comes to imbalance of international rules setting. The above financial imbalance could be further extended to international rules setting. International rules are the result of gaming among the political, economic and diplomatic comprehensive abilities of nations in the world. The existing international rules are mainly the products of developed countries’ manipulation after World War II and are mostly unilateral rules, reflecting the will and interests of Power or Power Group, with obvious discrimination, injustice and irrationality, and developing countries have no equal participation and voice in this process. In January, US President Barack Obama delivered his sixth State of the Union address in American Congress, putting forward explicitly that the USA should dominate the international trade rule-making, to pave the way for America’s own companies. He also implied that, “China wants to write the rules for the world's fastest-growing region. That would put our workers and our businesses at a disadvantage. Why would we let that happen? We should write those rules.” In fact, China has neither intention nor possibility to dominate the designing of world economic and financial rules, but we firmly believe that as long as its rules is being led by certain individual developed country unilaterallyit is impossible to achieve real balance for world economy and finance. Therefore, we want other countries to jointly participate in the development of the world economic and financial rules. The interests to be considered should be the interests of all!” We do not want to dominate the rule-setting, but we want a part in shaping the rules. The rules of the world should be designed by all related countries in the world. That is what we call “global democracy”.

And then is the imbalance in global governance. There are certain powers that have been boasting itself as the originator and leader of “global governance”, while the existing system of global governance has actually exposed various drawbacks, and is prone to imbalance of global governance, thereby intensifying the imbalances of world economy and finance. Albert Einstein once said, “You can't go looking for solutions to a problem by appealing to the same ideas that brought about the problem.” The global governance centered on a certain hegemonic superpower is the governance mode that has caused and is still causing serious problems, and therefore is also the source of world economic and financial imbalance.

And good global governance that is conducive to world economic and financial balance should not be one without the “Asian voice” or “Asian seats”. It should be noted that, compared with Asia's 60% of the world's population and its economic growth and importance, Asia has not be given corresponding proportion of “voice” or “seats”. The reason is complex, but the lack of joint action mechanism among Asian economies is an important reason. In this regard, the European integration experience is worth learning from.

It is a tight-knit Europe that is playing an increasingly important role in global governance, and has thus played a role in the world economic and financial balance.

To be conductive to the world economic and financial balance, it also needs a same tightly-knit Asia. The Asian economic and financial union is not only needed for the world balance but also for Asia’s own economic and financial development. This is why China’s “One Belt One Road” and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) initiative has received such positive responses.

From the value perspective, "One Belt One Road" is an echo to the aspirations of the majority of Asia's developing countries to reform the global governance system; from the regulation perspective, "One Belt One Road" is a supplement to the existing rules of global governance; from the main perspective, "One Belt One Road" is essentially an initiative of cooperation and development, and is bound to inject a strong power into the regional cooperation in Asia; from the effect perspective, "One Belt One Road" encourages opening up to the west Asia to bring forward the inland countries in the west and conveys an inclusive development concept to the international community. To sum up, "One Belt One Road" can be deemed as a significant move China takes to join Asian participation in the global governance and push a systematic reform to the global governance.

As the most powerful engine, trade is doubtlessly a key point of "One Belt One Road" strategy. In this process, finance plays a crucial boosting role. As the blood supply system for modern economy, every single link of the economy functioning is inseparable from the cross-time-and-space resources attraction and capital transactions. Just as what English economist David Hume said, “Currency…is a kind of lubricant. It makes the gear (of trade) turn with more ease.” For this reason, after coming up with the “One Belt One Road” strategy, China also initiated the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and “Silk Road Fund”, to finance the countries along the route for programs involving infrastructure construction, resource development and industry cooperation, and also to obtain broader space for Asian financial cooperation.

As a matter of fact, in the early 1990s, efforts had been made at the official level to explore the Asian financial cooperation. In 1991, the Asian regional international financial organizations --- East Asia and Pacific Central Bank Governors Meeting organization (EMEAP) was established to promote exchanges and cooperation among the members of the monetary authorities in the region, strengthen information exchange among the central banks, and coordinate the financial policies of each member. In addition, in 1997, the then Prime Minister of Malaysia Mahathir, at an ASEAN summit, first proposed the idea of "Asian Dollar Zone". Although for the moment, "Asian Dollar" remains a remote dream, the strong demand for Asian financial cooperation has become a fait accompli. To better meet the demands, Asian countries not only need to act at the government level, but also have to coordinate with the mobilized NGO organizations. In the 1980s, some regional economic cooperation organizations as well as various kinds of financial associations and federations began to appear in Asia. But overall, these non-governmental civil organizations are mostly small, inactive and have limited influence.

On March 28, Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping delivered a keynote speech at the opening ceremony of 2015 Annual Conference of Boao Forum, where he proposed to actively promote regional financial cooperation system and to build a platform for exchanges and cooperation among Asian financial institutions. Today, on this precious occasion, I solemnly announce to you, that China Banking Association is committed to implementing this important initiativiie of President Xi, and as the initial leading sponsor, initiated the establishment of the "Asian Financial Cooperation Association." As an Asian financial NGO organization, this association aims at promoting the normalization of interconnectivity of Asian financial cooperation, so as to make the Asia finance develops more steadily and securely, as well as to better serve the economic development in Asia and meanwhile enhance the Asian financial voice and influence in the international community, making due contributions to the international financial governance and to build Asia into the world's important polar for balancing global economy. Here, we sincerely welcome all financial industry associations and chambers of commerce, financial institutions and high-level financial professionals from all Asian economies to join us, and also welcome financial institutions from other regions to participate in an appropriate manner, so that together we can make it the most open, most inclusive, most active, and most effective Asian financial NGO.

If you all share the view with me, let us start from now and join our hands to make Asia an important polar for balancing the world economy!

Thank you for your attention!


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



推荐 0